StrategicGlobal Brief
On the Record
Every call is logged with a probability, a resolution date and the source that settles it. Once it is in the registry it is never edited. When it resolves, it is marked a hit or a miss and scored with a Brier score (lower is better). This page is generated from that registry. We don't invent calls or outcomes.
Hit rate stays pending until at least one call has resolved. Generated November 14, 2026, 9:10 PM ET from the On the Record registry. Research desk · orcid.org/0009-0004-7002-462X.
On Treasury's daily par yield curve for Friday, November 20, 2026, the 10-year yield prints at or above 5.00%.
Issue #1 · Logged November 14, 2026 · Official source
Resolution criteriaSettles on U.S. Treasury daily par yield curve (10 Yr column). The call is a hit if the 10 Yr yield prints at or above 5.00% on the curve for 11/20/2026.
NVIDIA files an 8-K naming a permanent CEO on or before December 31, 2026.
Issue #1 · Logged November 14, 2026 · Official source
Resolution criteriaSettles on SEC EDGAR filings for NVIDIA (CIK 0001045810), Item 5.02. The call is a hit only if a later 8-K, filed after accession 0001045810-26-000082, includes Item 5.02 and, on review, names a permanent CEO, on or before 2026-12-31. A new 8-K with that item is flagged for review before it is scored; the registry does not auto-declare a hit.